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Mock Placement 728x90
NH

NHL Hockey

hockey • Performance Deep Dive

Trained Never Predicted Never
All-Time Average (154 folds)
Flat ROI
+75.5%
Hit Rate
54.4%
+2pp vs b/e
Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Mar 20–May 7, 2026 ) ↓ Declining
Flat ROI
+48.0%
-27.5pp vs avg
Hit Rate
54.5%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
57.4%

Avg across 154 folds

AUC-ROC
0.570

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss
0.6747

Lower is better

Brier Score
0.2412

Probability calibration

154 validation folds
Nov 10, 2017 – May 7, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport nhl to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Betting Simulation

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Recommendation ROI
Recommendation Win Rate
Universe ROI
Universe Win Rate

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Model: LightGBMModel
Calibration: platt
All-Time Average (119 folds)
Flat ROI
+64.9%
Hit Rate
62.3%
+9.9pp vs b/e
Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Mar 17–May 4, 2026 ) ↓ Declining
Flat ROI
+40.9%
-24pp vs avg
Hit Rate
53.7%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
54.5%

Avg across 119 folds

AUC-ROC
0.565

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss
0.6850

Lower is better

Brier Score
0.2459

Probability calibration

119 validation folds
Nov 5, 2019 – May 4, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport nhl to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

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Betting Simulation

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Recommendation ROI
Recommendation Win Rate
Universe ROI
Universe Win Rate

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Model: XGBoostModel
Calibration: platt
All-Time Average (119 folds)
Flat ROI
+48.1%
Hit Rate
69.6%
+17.2pp vs b/e
Recent Trend (last 3 folds · Mar 17–May 4, 2026 ) ↓ Declining
Flat ROI
+43.4%
-4.7pp vs avg
Hit Rate
73.7%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
58.1%

Avg across 119 folds

AUC-ROC
0.595

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss
0.6570

Lower is better

Brier Score
0.2344

Probability calibration

119 validation folds
Nov 5, 2019 – May 4, 2026

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport nhl to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

Unlock Supporter

Betting Simulation

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Recommendation ROI
Recommendation Win Rate
Universe ROI
Universe Win Rate

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Model: CatBoostModel
Calibration: platt
Avg RMSE
2.573

Root mean squared error

Avg MAE
2.197

Mean absolute error

R² Score
-0.0067

Explained variance

154 validation folds
Nov 10, 2017 – May 7, 2026

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Model: LightGBMRegressorModel
Calibration: platt
Avg RMSE
2.294

Root mean squared error

Avg MAE
1.839

Mean absolute error

R² Score
-0.0117

Explained variance

154 validation folds
Nov 10, 2017 – May 7, 2026

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

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Model: LightGBMRegressorModel
Calibration: platt