The Daily Files

Predictions

Evidence-based picks across 4 sports — walk-forward backtested, no hindsight.

Predictions Healthy 1 hour ago

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PREDICTIONS HEADER

Mock Placement 970x250

Date	Record	Units	ROI	Pending
May 16, 2026 7 bets · 1 sport	Unsettled	—	—	7 / 7
May 12, 2026 7 bets · 1 sport	Unsettled	—	—	7 / 7
May 11, 2026 7 bets · 2 sports	Unsettled	—	—	7 / 7
May 10, 2026 18 bets · 3 sports	7W-11L	-2.04u	-26.3%	Complete
May 9, 2026 30 bets · 3 sports	10W-12L-2P	+0.50u	+6.1%	6 / 30
May 8, 2026 7 bets · 2 sports	1W-6L	-1.91u	-75.2%	Complete
May 7, 2026 10 bets · 2 sports	6W-4L	+1.47u	+44.4%	Complete

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Evidence Locked

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Tips

Display filters only — they narrow your view but don't affect how the engine evaluates or sizes bets. The Recommended flag reflects the pipeline's EV & edge thresholds.

How to Read the Cards

What the badge means

Every card has a badge in the top-right corner. Best Bet and Bet are Sherlock's real plays — they go into the results tracker. Value and Filed are shown for reference but are not official picks.

⚡ Best Bet The model's top pick — strongest confidence and best expected value of the slate. Tracked in results.

Bet A solid pick — the model sees better value here than the sportsbook is offering. Tracked in results.

Value A slight lean — the model sees a small positive angle but not enough confidence to officially recommend it. Not tracked.

Filed The model doesn't see value here. Shown for reference only — not a recommended play.

The numbers on each card

Odds — The sportsbook's price for this bet. An asterisk * means live odds weren't available — a standard −110 was used as a placeholder, so the expected value may be slightly off.

Edge — How much better the model thinks the true odds are vs. what the sportsbook is offering. Positive = the model sees value the market isn't pricing in.

EV/u — Expected profit per $1 wagered over time. +0.05 means the model expects to earn 5 cents per dollar bet in the long run.

Model% — The model's estimated chance of winning this bet, adjusted to be as accurate as possible based on past results.

Stake — Suggested bet size in units. Scales up with confidence — stronger picks get a larger recommended stake.

Odds Tier — How big a favourite or underdog this team is: Heavy Fav / Favorite / Pick'em / Underdog / Heavy Dog.

Recent form dots (newest on the left)

WL Win / Loss (moneyline)

YN Covered the spread / didn't cover

OU Total went Over / Under

The percentage next to each team name = how often they've hit this market in their last 10 games. Green ≥ 60%, Yellow ≥ 40%, Red < 40%.

Arrow ↑ / → / ↓ — whether the team's recent trend is getting better, staying flat, or getting worse.

A bold label like W4 means the team is on a 4-game winning streak in this market.

Injury warnings

⚠ 2 At least one player is confirmed OUT. The number shows how many players are injured.

● 1 A player is questionable or a game-time decision — not confirmed out yet.

The pts out number = estimated scoring impact of missing players. Higher = bigger deal for the game total.

Tap Injury Evidence on the card to see each injured player, their status (OUT / Questionable / GTD), and individual impact.

A ⚡ High impact flag means injuries are significant enough to affect your spread or total evaluation.

Starting lineups

Shows when starter info is available. A ✓ confirmed badge means the lineup is locked in and auto-expands.

Player status inside the lineup: OUT = not playing, Q = questionable, GTD = game-time decision.

MLB shows batting order number. NHL shows line number (L1, L2…). Other sports show position (PG, QB, etc.).

A red number on the lineup header = how many starters in this lineup are listed as injured.

Stats & Accuracy Indicators

Stats panel — Season record, points scored per game (green = higher scorer), points allowed per game (green = better defense), and recent spread and total hit rates.

Great / Good / Fair / Poor cal. — How accurately the model's predicted win chances matched real outcomes historically. Great = very reliable. Missing = not enough past data yet.

Minor gap / Partial data / Low data — Some information (injuries, lineups, recent head-to-head results, etc.) was missing when this pick was made. Lower confidence picks may carry one of these flags.

Weather shown on totals (Over/Under) only. Blue = cold (<45°F), orange = hot (>80°F). Rain and wind icons flag conditions that tend to keep scores lower.

How the model works →

🔥 4 TOP PICKS TODAY — The model's strongest recommendations right now

16 predictions found Sorted by Time ↑

MLB ML Underdog

⚡ Best Bet Today 6:10 PM

Cleveland Guardians

50% ↓

L L W W W

Los Angeles Angels

W L L W W

↑ 40%

54°F · Mainly clear · 10 mph

5–5 (+0.4)

(-1.4) 3–4

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.49x

Injury Evidence ⚠ Major ⚡ High impact

Armstrong OUT 0.5

Hernandez GTD 0.5

Arias OUT 0.3

Walters OUT —

4 inj · 0.8pts out

Kikuchi OUT 6.4

Rodriguez OUT 1.8

Rendon OUT 0.9

O'Hoppe OUT 0.8

Stephenson OUT 0.3

8 inj · 10.5pts out

Cleveland Guardians

Los Angeles Angels

5-5

Record

4-6

5.0

PPG

2.9

4.6

Opp PPG

4.3

60%

ATS L10

50%

60%

O/U L10

20%

MLB ML Underdog

⚡ Best Bet Today 8:05 PM

Texas Rangers

50% →

W W L L W

Arizona Diamondbacks

W L L L W

→ 30%

76°F · Clear sky · 6 mph

3–4 (-0.8)

(-1) 3–4

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.13x

Injury Evidence ⚡ High impact

Montgomery OUT 4

Eovaldi GTD 2.4

Walcott GTD 2.4

Smith OUT 0.9

Langford OUT 0.8

13 inj · 6.9pts out

Burnes OUT 3.6

Amendt GTD 2.4

Santana OUT 2

Henry OUT 0.6

Law OUT 0.2

13 inj · 6.8pts out

Texas Rangers

Arizona Diamondbacks

5-5

Record

3-7

3.2

PPG

2.9

4.0

Opp PPG

3.9

40%

ATS L10

44.4%

30%

O/U L10

22.2%

MLB O/U Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Today 8:10 PM

Houston Astros

40% ↓

U U O O U

Seattle Mariners

U U O U U

↓ 30%

75°F · Clear sky · 6 mph

4–4 (-0.2)

(-0.3) 4–4

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.94x

Injury Evidence ⚡ High impact

Jr. GTD 2.8

Brown OUT 2.6

Javier OUT 2.1

Correa OUT 1

Blanco OUT 1

18 inj · 10.3pts out

McGraw GTD 2.4

Miller OUT 2.1

Wisdom OUT 2

Robles OUT 2

Evans OUT 0.3

10 inj · 6.8pts out

Houston Astros

Seattle Mariners

4-6

Record

4-6

3.1

PPG

3.8

4.6

Opp PPG

4.1

40%

ATS L10

30%

40%

O/U L10

30%

NBA O/U Favorite

⚡ Best Bet Today 10:30 PM

Los Angeles Lakers

40% ↑

O O U U U

Oklahoma City Thunder

O O U O O

↑ 70%

104–106 (-2)

(+11.2) 119–108

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.89x

Injury Evidence ⚠ Major ⚡ High impact

Doncic OUT 7.2

1 inj · 7.2pts out

Sorber OUT 5.2

Williams OUT 3.3

2 inj · 8.5pts out

Los Angeles Lakers

Oklahoma City Thunder

5-5

Record

8-2

104.3

PPG

118.8

106.3

Opp PPG

107.6

50%

ATS L10

60%

40%

O/U L10

70%

40.6 / 25.7

Reb / Ast

42.3 / 27.4

MLB ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Tomorrow 6:35 PM

Baltimore Orioles

30% ↑

W L L L W

New York Yankees

L L L W L

L3 ↓ 60%

67°F · Clear sky · 10 mph

4–7 (-2.9)

(+2.6) 6–4

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Injury Evidence ⚠ Major ⚡ High impact

Eflin OUT 3.6

Kremer OUT 3.3

Guasch GTD 2.4

Gillies GTD 2.4

Rogers OUT 2.3

14 inj · 11.9pts out

Cole OUT 9

Caballero GTD 2.4

MacGregor GTD 2.4

Hess GTD 2.4

Stanton OUT 1.7

8 inj · 12.3pts out

Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees

3-7

Record

6-4

3.6

PPG

6.2

6.5

Opp PPG

3.6

40%

ATS L10

60%

50%

O/U L10

50%

MLB ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Tomorrow 7:07 PM

Toronto Blue Jays

40% →

L W W L L

Tampa Bay Rays

W L W W W

→ 80%

48°F · Overcast · 8 mph

4–4 (+0.6)

(+1.9) 4–2

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Injury Evidence ⚠ Major ⚡ High impact

Berrios OUT 7

Scherzer OUT 5.5

Bieber OUT 5.1

Yeager GTD 2.4

Kirk OUT 0.9

15 inj · 20.1pts out

Vernon GTD 2.4

Askew GTD 2.4

Zarraga GTD 2.4

Matz OUT 2.2

Pepiot OUT 2

15 inj · 7.4pts out

Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays

4-6

Record

8-2

4.3

PPG

3.5

3.7

Opp PPG

1.6

33.3%

ATS L10

70%

22.2%

O/U L10

10%

MLB O/U Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Tomorrow 7:15 PM

Atlanta Braves

56% ↑

O U U O O

Chicago Cubs

U U U O O

U3 ↓ 30%

75°F · Clear sky · 8 mph

5–4 (+1.4)

(+1.2) 5–3

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Injury Evidence ⚠ Major ⚡ High impact

Burkhalter GTD 2.4

Jr. OUT 1.8

Schwellenbach OUT 1.3

Wentz OUT 0.5

Murphy GTD 0.4

12 inj · 4.7pts out

Boyd OUT 5.8

Steele OUT 3

Birdsell GTD 2.4

Horton OUT 0.9

Wicks OUT 0.4

11 inj · 11.4pts out

Atlanta Braves

Chicago Cubs

6-4

Record

8-2

5.3

PPG

4.6

3.5

Opp PPG

3.4

77.8%

ATS L10

40%

55.6%

O/U L10

30%

MLB ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Tomorrow 7:40 PM

Chicago White Sox

60% →

W W L L L

Kansas City Royals

W W L L W

↑ 70%

65°F · Drizzle · 12 mph

5–3 (+1.1)

(+0.8) 4–4

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Injury Evidence

Adams GTD 2.4

Benintendi GTD 1.1

Vasil OUT 0.3

Teel OUT 0.2

Baldwin OUT 0.2

12 inj · 1pts out

Ragans OUT 3.1

Simonelli GTD 2.4

Vaz GTD 2.4

Guerrero GTD 2.4

Falter OUT 1.6

9 inj · 6.6pts out

Chicago White Sox

Kansas City Royals

6-4

Record

7-3

4.5

PPG

4.3

3.4

Opp PPG

3.5

70%

ATS L10

60%

30%

O/U L10

40%

MLB ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet Tomorrow 7:40 PM

Minnesota Twins

50% ↑

W W L L L

Miami Marlins

W W L W L

↑ 40%

59°F · Overcast · 18 mph

5–6 (-1.1)

(-0.4) 4–5

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Injury Evidence

Lopez OUT 4.5

Bradley OUT 2.4

Lewis GTD 2.4

Canterino GTD 2.4

Jenkins GTD 2.4

11 inj · 7.8pts out

Fairbanks OUT 0.5

Conine OUT 0.3

Mazur OUT 0.3

Henriquez OUT 0.2

Tinoco OUT 0.2

6 inj · 1.5pts out

Minnesota Twins

Miami Marlins

5-5

Record

4-6

4.7

PPG

4.1

5.8

Opp PPG

4.5

44.4%

ATS L10

40%

66.7%

O/U L10

50%

UFC ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet May 16, 5:00 PM

Daniel Barez

Luis Gurule

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Daniel Barez

Luis Gurule

17-7-0

Record

10-3-0

Finish%

KO/TKO

Sub%

UFC ML Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet May 16, 5:00 PM

Jeremiah Wells

Nicolas Dalby

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Jeremiah Wells

Nicolas Dalby

13-4-1

Record

24-6-1

20%

Finish%

20%

KO/TKO

20%

Sub%

UFC TOTAL_ROUNDS_OVER Pick'em

⚡ Best Bet May 16, 5:00 PM

Jeremiah Wells

Nicolas Dalby

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.91x

Jeremiah Wells

Nicolas Dalby

13-4-1

Record

24-6-1

20%

Finish%

20%

KO/TKO

20%

Sub%

UFC ML Underdog

⚡ Best Bet May 16, 8:00 PM

Timmy Cuamba

Bernardo Sopaj

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.24x

Timmy Cuamba

Bernardo Sopaj

10-3-0

Record

12-3-0

20%

Finish%

20%

KO/TKO

Sub%

UFC ML Underdog

⚡ Best Bet May 16, 8:00 PM

Dooho Choi

Daniel Santos

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.20x

Dooho Choi

Daniel Santos

16-4-1

Record

14-2-0

40%

Finish%

40%

KO/TKO

40%

Sub%

UFC TOTAL_ROUNDS_OVER Favorite

⚡ Best Bet May 16, 8:00 PM

Modestas Bukauskas

Rodolfo Bellato

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

1.77x

Modestas Bukauskas

Rodolfo Bellato

19-7-0

Record

13-3-1

60%

Finish%

40%

KO/TKO

40%

20%

Sub%

UFC TOTAL_ROUNDS_OVER Underdog

⚡ Best Bet May 16, 8:00 PM

Dooho Choi

Daniel Santos

Our Pick Hidden

Odds

+150

Edge

—

EV/u

—

Dec

2.20x

Dooho Choi

Daniel Santos

16-4-1

Record

14-2-0

40%

Finish%

40%

KO/TKO

40%

Sub%

Predictions

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