Evidence Ledger

Performance

Walk-forward backtesting across 8 sports — historical simulation averages, not live P&L.

Universe · flat 1u on every EV+ game

EV, edge & policy filters

Recommendation · flat 1u or Kelly stakes

Predictions Healthy 1 hour ago

Metrics Healthy 1 hour ago

AD TEST MODE

PERFORMANCE HEADER

Mock Placement 728x90

Bankroll Sim

AS OF May 10 · 4:43 PM EDT

Recommended Bets

31,322

passed EV + policy filters

Bet Hit Rate

61.1%

breakeven 52.4% +8.7pp

Recommendation ROI flat 1u

+42.5%

+8,159.1u net

31,322 bets · passed EV + policy filters

Universe ROI baseline

+14.8%

122,884 candidates · before any filtering

Moneyline ROI

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Spread ROI

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Over/Under ROI

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Equity Curve (All Sports)

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Track cumulative bankroll growth over time.

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What these numbers mean: Flat ROI = return per unit if you bet 1u on every recommended pick. Hit Rate = % of those picks that won (breakeven is 52.4% at -110). Recent Trend = average over the last 3 walk-forward folds only. Final Holdout = a set held back from all training — the cleanest out-of-sample test. All figures averaged across folds from Mar 2017 to May 2026.

All Sports — Backtest Summary

Historical simulation averages — not live tracked results.

Sport / Market	Best Model	Flat ROI	Hit Rate	Recent Trend	Final Holdout	Sample	Details
UF Ufc fighter_2_win	LightGBMModel	+100.0% 878 bets ≥100% capped vs. Universe: +86.1%	73.2% +20.8pp vs. b/e	—	—	878 152 folds	Deep Dive
UF Ufc KO/TKO	LightGBMModel	+100.0% 343 bets ≥100% capped vs. Universe: +218.0%	80.2% +27.8pp vs. b/e	+170.0% low sample last 3f · 14b	—	343 151 folds	Deep Dive
ME Mens college basketball Moneyline	LightGBMModel	+100.0% 1,283 bets ≥100% capped vs. Universe: +105.2%	63.6% +11.2pp vs. b/e	+112.9% ↑ 12.9pp vs all-time last 3f · 136b	—	1,283 28 folds	Deep Dive
UF Ufc Moneyline	XGBoostModel	+94.8% 423 bets Kelly: +94.8% vs. Universe: +68.1%	67.8% +15.4pp vs. b/e	—	—	423 151 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl Spread	XGBoostModel	+71.8% 1,197 bets Kelly: +71.8% vs. Universe: +57.4%	63.5% +11.1pp vs. b/e	+47.2% ↓ 24.6pp vs all-time last 3f · 73b	—	1,197 119 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba Moneyline	LightGBMModel	+59.8% 1,895 bets vs. Universe: +43.5%	57.7% +5.3pp vs. b/e	+23.7% low sample last 3f · 27b	—	1,895 154 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl Moneyline	LightGBMModel	+58.0% 514 bets Kelly: +58.0% vs. Universe: +59.1%	53.1% +0.7pp vs. b/e	+26.8% low sample last 2f · 13b	—	514 154 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl Over/Under	CatBoostModel	+55.9% 1,721 bets Kelly: +55.9% vs. Universe: +23.2%	68.9% +16.5pp vs. b/e	+35.2% ↓ 20.7pp vs all-time last 3f · 92b	—	1,721 119 folds	Deep Dive
UF Ufc Distance	LightGBMModel	+55.0% 280 bets Kelly: +55.0% vs. Universe: +39.1%	66.1% +13.7pp vs. b/e	+82.9% low sample last 2f · 5b	—	280 151 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba Moneyline	XGBoostModel	+49.5% 533 bets Kelly: +49.5% vs. Universe: +25.6%	50.5% -1.9pp vs. b/e	+90.0% low sample last 2f · 11b	—	533 88 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb Spread	CatBoostModel	+37.8% 8,164 bets Kelly: +37.8% vs. Universe: +23.2%	56.9% +4.5pp vs. b/e	+30.0% ↓ 7.8pp vs all-time last 2f · 66b	—	8,164 140 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb Moneyline	LightGBMModel	+36.5% 4,900 bets Kelly: +36.5% vs. Universe: +16.1%	56% +3.6pp vs. b/e	+15.7% ↓ 20.8pp vs all-time last 3f · 46b	—	4,900 142 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba Spread	CatBoostModel	+35.9% 355 bets Kelly: +35.9% vs. Universe: +1.9%	70.4% +18pp vs. b/e	—	—	355 76 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb Over/Under	XGBoostModel	+31.7% 722 bets Kelly: +31.7% vs. Universe: +2.6%	67% +14.6pp vs. b/e	+40.0% low sample last 2f · 6b	—	722 140 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba Over/Under	XGBoostModel	+31.6% 408 bets Kelly: +31.6% vs. Universe: +6.9%	67.4% +15pp vs. b/e	+21.3% ↓ 10.3pp vs all-time last 3f · 38b	—	408 76 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba Spread	XGBoostModel	+30.9% 1,868 bets Kelly: +30.9% vs. Universe: +7.0%	67.9% +15.5pp vs. b/e	+29.3% low sample last 1f · 18b	—	1,868 154 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb NRFI/YRFI	CatBoostModel	+30.0% 1,202 bets Kelly: +30.0% vs. Universe: +2.1%	62% +9.6pp vs. b/e	+27.5% ↓ 2.6pp vs all-time last 3f · 64b	—	1,202 142 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba Over/Under	XGBoostModel	+23.3% 1,370 bets Kelly: +23.3% vs. Universe: +4.7%	64.7% +12.3pp vs. b/e	+15.6% low sample last 1f · 10b	—	1,370 154 folds	Deep Dive
ME Mens college basketball Spread	LightGBMModel	+20.3% 1,213 bets Kelly: +20.3% vs. Universe: +2.9%	61.7% +9.3pp vs. b/e	+14.5% ↓ 5.8pp vs all-time last 2f · 85b	—	1,213 28 folds	Deep Dive
ME Mens college basketball Over/Under	LightGBMModel	+12.9% 1,156 bets Kelly: +12.9% vs. Universe: +2.6%	58.5% +6.1pp vs. b/e	+15.4% ↑ 2.6pp vs all-time last 2f · 116b	—	1,156 28 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba home_margin	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 88 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba total_points	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 88 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb home_margin	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 142 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb total_points	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 142 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba total_points	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 154 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl home_margin	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 154 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl total_points	LightGBMRegressorModel	—	—	—	—	0 154 folds	Deep Dive