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Mock Placement 728x90
WN

WNBA Basketball

basketball • Performance Deep Dive

Trained Never Predicted Never
All-Time Average (88 folds)
Flat ROI
+48.6%
Hit Rate
45.8%
-6.6pp vs b/e
Recent Trend (last 2 folds · Aug 28–Oct 10, 2025 ) ↑ Improving
Flat ROI
+130.7%
+82.2pp vs avg
Hit Rate
71.4%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
59.0%

Avg across 88 folds

AUC-ROC
0.654

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss
0.6581

Lower is better

Brier Score
0.2333

Probability calibration

88 validation folds
Jul 13, 2017 – Oct 10, 2025

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport wnba to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

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Betting Simulation

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Recommendation ROI
Recommendation Win Rate
Universe ROI
Universe Win Rate

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Model: XGBoostModel
Calibration: platt
All-Time Average (76 folds)
Flat ROI
+27.3%
Hit Rate
66.7%
+14.3pp vs b/e
Recent Trend (last 1 folds · Aug 21–Oct 10, 2025 ) ↑ Improving
Flat ROI
+90.9%
+63.6pp vs avg
Hit Rate
100.0%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
54.8%

Avg across 76 folds

AUC-ROC
0.586

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss
0.6747

Lower is better

Brier Score
0.2413

Probability calibration

76 validation folds
Jun 22, 2018 – Oct 10, 2025

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport wnba to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

Unlock Supporter

Betting Simulation

Supporter+
Recommendation ROI
Recommendation Win Rate
Universe ROI
Universe Win Rate

Supporter access required

Unlock Supporter
Model: CatBoostModel
Calibration: platt
All-Time Average (76 folds)
Flat ROI
+20.3%
Hit Rate
63.1%
+10.7pp vs b/e
Recent Trend (last 2 folds · Aug 21–Oct 10, 2025 ) ↑ Improving
Flat ROI
+36.5%
+16.1pp vs avg
Hit Rate
71.8%
Out-of-sample Accuracy
55.2%

Avg across 76 folds

AUC-ROC
0.595

0.5 = coin flip · 1.0 = perfect

Log Loss
0.6820

Lower is better

Brier Score
0.2446

Probability calibration

76 validation folds
Jun 22, 2018 – Oct 10, 2025

Final Holdout Test

Held back from all training and fold evaluation — the cleanest out-of-sample signal.

No holdout data available. Re-run prediction-system run --sport wnba to generate holdout metrics.

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

Unlock Supporter

Betting Simulation

Supporter+
Recommendation ROI
Recommendation Win Rate
Universe ROI
Universe Win Rate

Supporter access required

Unlock Supporter
Model: XGBoostModel
Calibration: platt
Avg RMSE
13.335

Root mean squared error

Avg MAE
10.864

Mean absolute error

R² Score
0.0168

Explained variance

88 validation folds
Jul 13, 2017 – Oct 10, 2025

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

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Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

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Model: LightGBMRegressorModel
Calibration: platt
Avg RMSE
17.454

Root mean squared error

Avg MAE
13.647

Mean absolute error

R² Score
-0.0251

Explained variance

88 validation folds
Jul 13, 2017 – Oct 10, 2025

Fold-by-Fold Metrics

Supporter+ required

Supporter access required

Unlock fold-level charts to identify training stability.

Unlock Supporter
Model: LightGBMRegressorModel
Calibration: platt