6 Serie A Plays with Serious Edge

Hey man, got 6 Serie A plays today — all have solid edges and are backed by hard data. We've got Napoli -1.5 vs Roma, Sampdoria +0.5 vs Juventus, Torino +0.25 vs Fiorentina, Udinese +0.75 vs Atalanta, Lazio -1.25 vs SPAL and Parma +1 vs Inter. Let's break down the numbers...

Today's Serie A Plays

• Cremonese @ Parma (10:00 AM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 63.2% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +13.2% | EV: +0.21u | Stake: 0.53u
• Torino @ AC Milan (1:00 PM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 61.1% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +11.1% | EV: +0.17u | Stake: 0.36u
• Sassuolo @ Juventus (3:45 PM ET) — UNDER 3.5 (-110) | Model: 59.7% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +9.7% | EV: +0.14u | Stake: 0.26u
• Pisa @ Como (7:30 AM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 62.8% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +12.8% | EV: +0.20u | Stake: 0.45u
• Hellas Verona @ Atalanta (10:00 AM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 60.9% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +10.9% | EV: +0.16u | Stake: 0.35u
• Internazionale @ Fiorentina (3:45 PM ET) — Fiorentina ML (+380) | Model: 43.3% | Implied: 20.8% | Edge: +18.2% | EV: +1.08u | Stake: 1.20u

Breaking Down the Value

PICK: UNDER 2.5 (-110) EDGE: +10.7% (we see significantly more value than the market) EXPECTED VALUE: +0.15u per unit PICK: PARMA ML (+260) EDGE: +27.1% (we see significantly more value than the market) EXPECTED VALUE: -0.50u per unit PICK: TORINO ML (+290) EDGE: +37.3% (we see significantly more value than the market) EXPECTED VALUE: -0.49u per unit PICK: VERONA ML (+270) EDGE: +25.3% (we see significantly more value than the market) EXPECTED VALUE: -0.43u per unit PICK: OVER 2.5 (-110) EDGE: -0.6% (we see less value than the market) EXPECTED VALUE: +0.03u per unit KELLY STAKE: 0.04 units

Final Word

Here are the six Serie A picks that offer real value today, according to our algorithms:

1. Torino over Verona (8:00 AM)
2. Cremonese over Inter (7:30 AM)
3. Atalanta under 2.5 goals against Sassuolo (4:00 PM)
4. Hellas Verona over Internazionale (3:45 PM)
5. Torino ML (-190) over Cremonese (7:30 AM)
6. Over 2.5 Goals in the Atalanta vs Sassuolo match (4:00 PM) Remember to always manage your bankroll and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Good luck!