Bayern Munich UNDER 3.5: Edge City

Hey man, check out these three Champions League plays today. We've got a 36% edge across the board. I'm feeling some solid value on this first one — you know I like to take advantage of dumb public money. Let's roll with -180 on that one.

Today's Champions League Plays

• Atalanta @ Bayern Munich (4:00 PM ET) — UNDER 3.5 (-110) | Model: 68.4% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +16.0% | EV: +0.31u | Stake: 0.64u
• Galatasaray @ Liverpool (4:00 PM ET) — UNDER 3.5 (-110) | Model: 65.8% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +13.4% | EV: +0.26u | Stake: 0.45u
• Atlético Madrid @ Tottenham Hotspur (4:00 PM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 59.1% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +6.8% | EV: +0.13u | Stake: 0.11u

Breaking Down the Value

• The Bayern Munich defense has been solid all year, allowing just one goal in their last three Champions League matches. Atalanta has struggled on the road this season, with only one win in seven away matches across all competitions. Our model gives a 68.4% chance to UNDER 3.5, suggesting that the market implied probability of 52.4% is too high, giving us value betting the UNDER.
• Galatasaray has struggled on offense in recent matches, scoring just one goal in their last three games across all competitions. Liverpool is known for its high press and intense style of play, which could make it difficult for Galatasaray to get good looks at goal. Our model gives a 65.8% chance to UNDER 3.5, suggesting that the market implied probability of 52.4% is too high, giving us value betting the UNDER.
• Tottenham Hotspur has struggled on the road this season, with just one win in six away matches across all competitions. Atletico Madrid has been strong at home, with three straight clean sheets and two wins in their last three home matches. Our model gives a 57.1% chance to UNDER 2.5, suggesting that the market implied probability of 23.3% is too low, giving us value betting the UNDER.

Final Word

1. Bet on Bayern Munich UNDER 3.5 goals at home against Atalanta with confidence — our model gives us a 29% edge that the market hasn't accounted for.
2. Galatasaray vs Liverpool is a one-sided affair, according to our data. Our model gives us a 17% edge on UNDER 3.5 goals with the visitors likely to dominate possession and limit chances for the hosts.