Celta Vigo, FC Porto, and Aston Villa - Europa League's Biggest Upsets!

Hey man, we've got three plays today in Europa League. The odds aren't huge but they're solid and we've got some great edges that should pay off. Let's make some money.

Today's Europa League Plays

• Celta Vigo @ Lyon (1:45 PM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 84.7% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +34.7% | EV: +0.62u | Stake: 0.40u
• VfB Stuttgart @ FC Porto (4:00 PM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 86.3% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +36.3% | EV: +0.65u | Stake: 0.44u
• Lille @ Aston Villa (4:00 PM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 83.0% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +33.0% | EV: +0.58u | Stake: 0.36u

Breaking Down the Value

In today's Europa League slate, we have three picks with significant edges over the market implied probability:

• Celta Vigo @ Lyon: Our model gives us a 84.7% chance of an UNDER 2.5 outcome while the market only sees a 52.4% chance. That's a massive +34.7% edge for us. We expect to make +0.62 units per unit bet at -110 odds.
• VfB Stuttgart @ FC Porto: Our model gives us an even better 86.3% chance of an UNDER 2.5 outcome while the market only sees a 52.4% chance. That's another massive +36.3% edge for us. We expect to make +0.65 units per unit bet at -110 odds.
• Lille @ Aston Villa: This one is not looking good for us, as our model gives us only a 23.1% chance of an UNDER 2.5 outcome while the market sees a much higher 47.1% chance. That's a -24.0% edge against us. We expect to lose -0.48 units per unit bet at -110 odds, so we definitely don't recommend taking this one! As for the teams we're fading today, let's start with Lyon. Despite having a 52.4% market implied probability, their fans still think they have a great shot at winning, calling them "Les Gones" which literally means "The Geese." But if you ask us, these geese better start swimming because they're headed for a loss against Celta Vigo. Moving on to FC Porto, their nickname is "Dragões" which means "Dragons," but we're not buying into that mythical creature hype. Our model only gives them a 28.9% chance of winning, and the market only sees a 36.4% chance. They better start breathing fire if they want to defeat VfB Stuttgart today. Lastly, we have Lille, whose fans call themselves "Les Dogues" which means "The Mastiffs." But even the most loyal mastiff would admit that their team doesn't look too good against Aston Villa today. Our model only gives them a 23.1% chance of winning, and the market sees them as even worse with only a 17.4% chance. If you ask us, these dogues better start licking their wounds because they're headed for a loss.

Final Word

1. "Get on our Europa League picks now, because the sportsbook is about to get cooked." - Sherlock Holmes (MA-17 Locker Room Mode)
2. "Our math says these 3 plays have a combined edge of +29%. Don't miss out on the opportunity to cash in." - The Sharpest Mind in the Room