Giants vs Dodgers: A High-Stakes Underdog Story

Today we've got three MLB plays that are worth considering. Yesterday we went 6-2 (+0.0 units), and the model is firing on all cylinders today. Let's get to it!

Today's MLB Plays

• San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (4:05 PM ET) — UNDER 8.5 (-110) | Model: 56.5% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +6.5% | EV: +0.08u | Stake: 0.83u
• Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals (1:05 PM ET) — UNDER 8.5 (-110) | Model: 55.2% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +5.2% | EV: +0.05u | Stake: 0.46u
• New York Mets @ Houston Astros (6:05 PM ET) — OVER 8.5 (-110) | Model: 55.4% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +5.4% | EV: +0.06u | Stake: 0.51u

Breaking Down the Value

The San Francisco Giants have a +6.5% edge against the Los Angeles Dodgers in tonight's game according to our model. The market has underestimated the Giants, who have a higher chance of winning than Vegas realizes. We see significant value in the UNDER 8.5 line, and expect a low-scoring affair. The Washington Nationals have a +5.2% edge against the St. Louis Cardinals. Our model gives them a better chance of winning than what the market is implying. We're banking on a low-scoring game in this one too, and recommend taking the UNDER 8.5 line with value on our side. The New York Mets have a massive +29.5% edge against the Houston Astros according to our model. However, Vegas seems to love them despite their poor recent form and mediocre odds. We believe they'll struggle to score tonight, so we recommend taking the OVER 8.5 line with value on the other side. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been getting a lot of love from the bookies lately, but our model is telling us that they aren't quite as good as people think. They have some serious flaws in their game that are holding them back, and we believe it could be a long night for their fans. The St. Louis Cardinals have been underperforming this season, and our model is showing that they haven't been playing up to their potential. We expect them to struggle against the Nationals tonight, and predict a low-scoring game in favor of the UNDER 8.5 line. The Houston Astros have had a rough time on the road this season, and our model is telling us that they may continue to struggle away from home. We recommend taking advantage of the high OVER 8.5 line and betting big on the Mets to put up some serious points tonight.

Final Word

1. "Looking for an edge tonight? Take a look at our three MLB plays with real value."
2. "There's no time to waste, bettors — check out today's picks and get in on the action before it's too late."