Gladbach looks like a lock on the road against struggling Cologne.

Today's Bundesliga Plays

• Bayer Leverkusen @ 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (10:30 AM ET) — 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 ML (+400) | Model: 43.9% | Implied: 20.0% | Edge: +20.4% | EV: +1.20u | Stake: 1.20u
• Bayer Leverkusen @ 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (10:30 AM ET) — UNDER 3.5 (-110) | Model: 64.4% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +14.4% | EV: +0.23u | Stake: 0.46u
• Borussia Mönchengladbach @ FC Cologne (10:30 AM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 61.3% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +11.3% | EV: +0.17u | Stake: 0.27u
• Eintracht Frankfurt @ Mainz (10:30 AM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 65.3% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +15.3% | EV: +0.25u | Stake: 0.52u
• VfB Stuttgart @ FC Augsburg (2:30 PM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 61.1% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +11.1% | EV: +0.17u | Stake: 0.25u

Breaking Down the Value

Bayer Leverkusen has struggled on the road this season, with only one win in five away matches. Meanwhile, Heidenheim has been solid at home, winning three of four matches played there so far. Our model gives Heidenheim a 43.9% chance of winning, while the market implied probability is just 20.0%. This creates an edge of +20.4%, which equates to +1.20u per unit expected value on the UNDER 3.5. We see significantly more value than the market in this match and recommend taking Heidenheim on the ML (+400) at the current odds.

FC Cologne has been a disaster so far this season, with only one win in nine matches played. They've conceded 25 goals in those nine games, an average of 2.78 per match. Borussia Mönchengladbach, on the other hand, has won four of their last five away matches and has the best attack in the league, with 24 goals scored so far. Our model gives Gladbach a 61.3% chance of winning, while the market implied probability is just 52.4%. This creates an edge of +11.3%, which equates to +0.23u per unit expected value on the UNDER 2.5. We see significantly more value than the market in this match and recommend taking Borussia Mönchengladbach on the -110 moneyline.

Eintracht Frankfurt has been one of the best teams in the league so far this season, with seven wins and only two losses in 11 matches played. They've also scored the second-most goals in the league, with 24. Mainz, on the other hand, has struggled on both sides of the ball, with only three wins in nine matches played. Our model gives Frankfurt a 65.3% chance of winning, while the market implied probability is just 52.4%. This creates an edge of +15.3%, which equates to +0.25u per unit expected value on the UNDER 2.5. We see significantly more value than the market in this match and recommend taking Eintracht Frankfurt on the -110 moneyline.

VfB Stuttgart has been one of the worst teams in the league so far this season, with only two wins in nine matches played. They've also conceded 23 goals in those nine games, an average of 2.56 per match. Augsburg, on the other hand, has been solid at home, with three wins and one draw in four matches played. Our model gives Stuttgart a 61.1% chance of winning, while the market implied probability is just 38.9%. This creates an edge of +11.1%, which equates to +0.25u per unit expected value on the UNDER 2.5. We see significantly more value than the market in this match and recommend taking Augsburg on the -110 moneyline.

Final Word

1. "Looking to cash in on the Bundesliga? Today's picks are must-bet plays with real edge. Don't miss out."
2. "Got an angle on these games? The sharps sure do. Get in line and place your bets. We'll see you at the window."