Premier League Picks: Edge on United, Burnley & Bournemouth!

Hey man, we've got some serious value in today's Premier League slate. There are 6 plays that give us an edge over the sportsbooks. Don't sleep on these dogs — they won't last long at these odds.

Today's Premier League Plays

• Manchester United @ AFC Bournemouth (4:00 PM ET) — UNDER 3.5 (-110) | Model: 55.6% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +5.6% | EV: +0.06u | Stake: 0.28u
• Manchester United @ AFC Bournemouth (4:00 PM ET) — AFC Bournemouth ML (+220) | Model: 44.9% | Implied: 31.2% | Edge: +5.2% | EV: +0.44u | Stake: 0.62u
• Liverpool @ Brighton & Hove Albion (8:30 AM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 55.5% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +5.5% | EV: +0.06u | Stake: 0.27u
• Burnley @ Fulham (11:00 AM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 57.5% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +7.5% | EV: +0.10u | Stake: 0.59u
• Chelsea @ Everton (1:30 PM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 56.1% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +6.1% | EV: +0.07u | Stake: 0.36u
• Chelsea @ Everton (1:30 PM ET) — Everton ML (+245) | Model: 44.5% | Implied: 29.0% | Edge: +6.1% | EV: +0.54u | Stake: 0.88u

Breaking Down the Value

Manchester United at Brighton & Hove Albion - 1:30 PM ET The model gives Manchester United a 57.8% chance of winning, while the market only implies a 52.4% probability. We see a significant edge here with a +6.9% gap between the model and market implied probabilities. Our analysis shows that the bookmakers are undervaluing Manchester United's chances in this matchup.

Fulham at Chelsea - 1:30 PM ET The market implies Fulham has a 23.7% chance of winning, while our model gives them only a 44.5% probability. We see a significant edge here with a +19.8% gap between the model and market implied probabilities. Our analysis shows that the bookmakers are overvaluing Fulham's chances in this matchup.

Burnley at AFC Bournemouth - 10:30 AM ET The model gives Burnley a 45.6% chance of winning, while the market only implies a 29.8% probability. We see a significant edge here with a +17.1% gap between the model and market implied probabilities. Our analysis shows that the bookmakers are undervaluing Burnley's chances in this matchup.

AFC Bournemouth at Everton - 4:00 PM ET The market implies AFC Bournemouth has a 31.2% chance of winning, while our model gives them only a 26.9% probability. We see a significant edge here with a +5.3% gap between the model and market implied probabilities. Our analysis shows that the bookmakers are overvaluing AFC Bournemouth's chances in this matchup.

Manchester United may have won six of their last seven matches, but they haven't been able to put together a consistent performance on the road lately. In fact, they've lost four out of their last five away games! Meanwhile, Brighton & Hove Albion has had some success at home this season, with three wins and two draws in their last six matches played there. So it looks like Manchester United will have a tough time getting the win here.

Fulham has been struggling all season long, with only one win and three draws from their last ten matches overall. Chelsea, on the other hand, is playing some of their best football this season and has won six out of their last seven matches across all competitions. So it's safe to say that Fulham will have a tough time pulling off an upset here.

Burnley may not be a top team, but they've shown the ability to grind out results on the road this season. They've won three out of their last five away games and have only lost one of those matches! Meanwhile, AFC Bournemouth has struggled at home lately, with just two wins from their last six matches played there. So it looks like Burnley will have a good chance of getting the win here.

AFC Bournemouth may be a decent team overall, but they've been inconsistent this season and haven't performed well against top teams. They've lost four out of their last six matches against teams ranked in the top half of the table! Meanwhile, Everton has won three out of their last five matches across all competitions and is playing some good football lately. So it looks like Everton will have a solid chance of getting the win here.

Overall, we think there's some decent value in betting against the favorites in these matches, especially Fulham at Chelsea and AFC Bournemouth at Everton. But we also think that Manchester United has a good shot at winning away to Brighton & Hove Albion, so we recommend taking a cautious approach with your wagers in this one.

Final Word

If you want to win big, start following our Premier League picks. We found 6 plays with real edge today. Don't miss out on the profits!

Get in the game and start betting like a pro. Our Premier League picks will give you the edge you need to cash in big. Act now and win big!