Serie A's Edge of the Day: 5 Big Wins Lining Up

5 Serie A picks today, all with solid edges and strong reasons to back them. Don't miss out on some big wins, buddy — I've got the scoop.

Today's Serie A Plays

• Napoli @ Cagliari (1:30 PM ET) — Cagliari ML (+400) | Model: 42.2% | Implied: 20.0% | Edge: +16.6% | EV: +1.11u | Stake: 1.20u
• Udinese @ Genoa (3:45 PM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 59.8% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +9.8% | EV: +0.14u | Stake: 0.24u
• Cremonese @ Parma (10:00 AM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 63.2% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +13.2% | EV: +0.21u | Stake: 0.48u
• Torino @ AC Milan (1:00 PM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 61.1% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +11.1% | EV: +0.17u | Stake: 0.33u
• Pisa @ Como (7:30 AM ET) — UNDER 2.5 (-110) | Model: 62.8% | Implied: 52.4% | Edge: +12.8% | EV: +0.20u | Stake: 0.45u

Breaking Down the Value

Napoli @ Cagliari (10:00 AM ET) The model gives Cagliari a 63.2% chance of winning, while the market implied probability is only 52.4%. This creates a massive +13.8% edge for UNDER 2.5 (-110). The gap in probability shows that the oddsmakers are underestimating Cagliari's chances of winning at home, which gives us value on the UNDER.

Comically fading Cremonese (7:30 AM ET) Cremonese has a market implied probability of 23.3%, despite only having a model probability of 16.5%. The oddsmakers are clearly overestimating their chances of winning, which gives us value on the opposing team Pisa (-110). We recommend taking UNDER 2.5 (-110) and laughing all the way to the bank as Cremonese disappoints yet again.

Final Word

1. "Napoli @ Cagliari (-110): You're welcome, my friend." (Sherlock Holmes Locker Room Mode)
2. "Cremonese (-110): Bet on us and kiss your money goodbye." (Poker Face)