Performance Analytics

Walk-forward backtested model metrics across all 18 sports. All stats reflect out-of-sample validation.

ROI (flat 1u) = flat 1-unit stakes on bets that passed filters — honest selection quality. Kelly ROI = variable stakes, can be inflated by overfit confidence. Universe ROI = flat 1u on all +EV candidates.

Predictions Delayed 5 hours ago

Metrics Healthy 5 hours ago

Total Bets

63,266

across all sports

Win Rate

54.7%

weighted avg across all sport/market combinations

Recommendation ROI

+35.5%

+12,601.8u net

policy-filtered backtest bets

Universe ROI

+7.7%

hypothetical ROI betting 1 unit on every +EV game the model flagged — no staking limits, edge filters, or policy applied

Moneyline ROI

Tipper+

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Spread (ATS) ROI

Tipper+

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Over/Under ROI

Tipper+

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Equity Curve (All Sports)

Tipper+

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All Sports — Backtest Summary

Sport	Best Model	Accuracy	AUC	ROI (flat 1u)	Bets	Details
ME Mens college basketball home_win	XGBoostModel	67.4%	0.526	+100.0% 7,114 bets Kelly +112.2% Universe +42.3%	100 folds	Deep Dive
CH Champions league result	LightGBMModel	47.6%	0.547	+78.1% 837 bets Kelly +78.1% Universe -10.3%	137 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba home_win	LightGBMModel	58.5%	0.580	+73.0% 667 bets Kelly +73.0% Universe +7.6%	88 folds	Deep Dive
LI Ligue1 result	LightGBMModel	45.1%	0.562	+67.9% 1,164 bets Kelly +67.9% Universe -7.2%	175 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mls total_over	LogisticRegressionModel	89.8%	0.511	+64.0% 1,115 bets Kelly +64.0%	103 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl home_win	XGBoostModel	51.5%	0.509	+62.9% 1,209 bets Kelly +62.9% Universe +27.4%	154 folds	Deep Dive
SE Seriea result	LightGBMModel	42.4%	0.569	+55.6% 1,358 bets Kelly +55.6% Universe -6.6%	170 folds	Deep Dive
EP Epl result	LightGBMModel	46.3%	0.578	+52.1% 1,370 bets Kelly +52.1% Universe -8.1%	171 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba total_over	XGBoostModel	50.2%	0.501	+50.0% 4 bets Universe +14.0%	150 folds	Deep Dive
PR Primeiraliga result	LightGBMModel	45.4%	0.542	+47.9% 627 bets Kelly +47.9% Universe -11.7%	165 folds	Deep Dive
LI Ligamx result	LightGBMModel	46.6%	0.574	+46.3% 1,392 bets Kelly +46.3% Universe -3.2%	179 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba home_win	XGBoostModel	53.0%	0.504	+46.1% 1,749 bets Kelly +46.1% Universe +28.7%	150 folds	Deep Dive
BU Bundesliga result	LightGBMModel	45.2%	0.567	+43.4% 1,453 bets Kelly +43.4% Universe -7.7%	163 folds	Deep Dive
NB Nba home_cover	XGBoostModel	50.2%	0.503	+37.0% 27 bets Kelly +37.0% Universe +4.8%	150 folds	Deep Dive
LA Laliga result	CatBoostModel	45.1%	0.564	+36.9% 1,997 bets Kelly +36.9% Universe -8.1%	175 folds	Deep Dive
LA Laliga total_over	CatBoostModel	63.3%	0.558	+32.8% 2,363 bets Kelly +32.8% Universe +21.6%	124 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl home_cover	XGBoostModel	48.4%	0.495	+32.2% 2,691 bets Kelly +32.2% Universe +20.7%	121 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb home_win	XGBoostModel	50.9%	0.495	+27.8% 4,683 bets Kelly +27.8% Universe +17.0%	96 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mls result	LogisticRegressionModel	44.4%	0.485	+26.5% 1,628 bets Kelly +26.5%	169 folds	Deep Dive
PR Primeiraliga total_over	LightGBMModel	64.5%	0.578	+26.4% 2,302 bets Kelly +26.4% Universe +23.1%	148 folds	Deep Dive
EU Europa league total_over	CatBoostModel	61.3%	0.564	+26.4% 385 bets Kelly +26.4% Universe +18.1%	93 folds	Deep Dive
EU Europa league result	CatBoostModel	47.8%	0.557	+23.5% 311 bets Kelly +23.5% Universe -10.4%	121 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba home_cover	LightGBMModel	58.0%	0.547	+22.9% 862 bets Kelly +22.9% Universe +10.0%	85 folds	Deep Dive
ME Mens college basketball total_over	CatBoostModel	57.3%	0.531	+20.9% 4,606 bets Universe +5.3%	100 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb home_cover	XGBoostModel	50.8%	0.498	+18.6% 3,300 bets Kelly +18.6% Universe +13.3%	95 folds	Deep Dive
BU Bundesliga total_over	LightGBMModel	58.5%	0.582	+17.8% 2,311 bets Kelly +17.8% Universe +11.2%	147 folds	Deep Dive
LI Ligue1 total_over	LightGBMModel	58.6%	0.576	+17.8% 1,894 bets Kelly +17.8% Universe +12.6%	158 folds	Deep Dive
WN Wnba total_over	LightGBMModel	54.7%	0.533	+16.5% 958 bets Kelly +16.5% Universe +4.5%	85 folds	Deep Dive
CH Champions league total_over	LightGBMModel	57.3%	0.571	+13.9% 1,216 bets Kelly +13.9% Universe +9.4%	113 folds	Deep Dive
EP Epl total_over	LightGBMModel	58.3%	0.557	+13.7% 2,198 bets Universe +10.1%	154 folds	Deep Dive
ME Mens college basketball home_cover	CatBoostModel	56.8%	0.526	+13.1% 4,498 bets Kelly +13.1% Universe +4.7%	100 folds	Deep Dive
SE Seriea total_over	LightGBMModel	58.8%	0.560	+11.3% 2,297 bets Universe +10.5%	153 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb total_over	XGBoostModel	50.8%	0.493	+8.4% 2,040 bets Kelly +8.4% Universe +2.6%	95 folds	Deep Dive
NH Nhl total_over	XGBoostModel	49.9%	0.497	+5.5% 640 bets Kelly +5.5% Universe -1.1%	121 folds	Deep Dive
UF Ufc fighter_1_win	CatBoostModel	68.9%	0.763	—	152 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb first3_result	LightGBMModel	41.1%	0.523	—	97 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb first5_result	LightGBMModel	45.6%	0.524	—	97 folds	Deep Dive
ML Mlb nrfi_yrfi	LightGBMModel	52.9%	0.546	—	96 folds	Deep Dive